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Fire Crux MageTier 1

at DTR Regional - Reaper Game Store

decks
9 (12.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
52 30-18-4
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2% avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
57.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1335 · median 1343 · range 1158–1526 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046 Q1 1173 Q3 1404 1638
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 13.7% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 58.3% +5.3
Water Umbra Guardian 9.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 59.7% +9.3
Water Allies 8.2% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 57.6% +4.9
Fire Aggro 6.8% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 48.6% -0.7
Wind Seiryuu 6.8% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 51.8% +1.2
Water Genbu 5.5% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.5% +1.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.1% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.9% +2.2
Water Aetherwing 4.1% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 59.8% +7.3
Water Ravishing Mill 4.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.6% +9.2
Fire Suited 2.7% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 37.3% -9.5
Fire Suzaku 2.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 47.8% -1.7
Wind Allies 2.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.1% -5.7
Wind Arcane 2.7% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 35.8% -10.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 48.3% -1.3
Fire Exia 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.7
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.4% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.4% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.4% 0
Fire Triskit 1.4% 0
Water Ciel 1.4% 0
Water Fractal 1.4% 0
Water Tera Cleric 1.4% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Wind Astra Cleric 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.1
Wind Beast 1.4% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.4% 0
Wind Umbra Ciel 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.4
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Turbo Charge, Flame-Rune Swordsman.

Played more by winners
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 3.5 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fast Cure +0.75 3 0 1
Resolute Stand +0.50 2 0 2
Crux Sight +0.50 2 0 2
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 2 0 2
Consumption Ring +0.50 2 0 0
Lurid Dreaming -0.25 0 1 0
Backup Charger -0.25 0 1 3
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.25 1 0 3
Sudden Steel -0.25 0 1 3
Cremation Ritual +0.25 1 0 3
Hasty Messenger -0.25 1 2 1
Turbo Charge -0.25 1 2 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.25 0 1 3
Excalibur, Reflected Edge -0.25 0 1 0
Annul Spell -0.25 0 1 0
Library Witch +0.25 2 1 1
Incarnate Majesty -0.25 0 1 3
Flame-Rune Swordsman -0.25 1 2 1
Flame Sweep +0.25 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.25 0 1 3
Censer of Restful Peace +0.25 1 0 0
Smoke Out +0.25 1 0 0
Immolation Trap -0.25 0 1 0
Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia +0.25 1 0 0
Reclaim -0.25 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -0.25 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -0.25 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -0.25 0 1 0
Chilling Touch -0.25 0 1 0
Liminal Guide +0.00 1 1 2
Three of Hearts +0.00 1 1 2
Regal Inquisition +0.00 2 2 0
Undying Dreams +0.00 2 2 0

JSON: /api/events/31444/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage