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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.8% | +7.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Beast | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Turbo Charge, Flame-Rune Swordsman.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Cure | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |